2030 Photovoltaic Development Space in China under the New Normal of Econ

The sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry is directly related to China's socio-economic development. With the support of the concept

of green and low-carbon development, there is no doubt that China's economy, which has entered the new normal, will continue to improve.

This provides sufficient room for the development and application of photovoltaic new energy.

At present, the annual electricity consumption of the whole society has reached 6 trillion kilowatt hours, with a photovoltaic installed capacity of 100

million kilowatts. The average annual power generation utilization is 1200 hours, and the annual power generation is 120 billion kilowatt hours,

accounting for 2% of the total electricity, which is very small.

Set in the new normal green development model of China's economy, with sustained energy utilization, China's total social electricity consumption will

increase by 60% by 2030, with an annual electricity consumption of 9.6 trillion kilowatts. According to the international and domestic action goals for

new energy utilization in 2030, China will use 10% of photovoltaic clean energy supply, with an annual electricity supply of 960 billion kilowatts and a

total photovoltaic installed capacity of 800 million kilowatts.

According to the current situation, there is no doubt that the photovoltaic installation will reach 200 million kilowatts by 2020, with an average annual

installed capacity of 30 million kilowatts; To achieve the target of 800 million kilowatts by 2030 and an annual installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts

after 2020.

According to the current national development mechanism that encourages photovoltaic new energy, 200 million kilowatts will be completed by 2020.

Although facing certain challenges, the enthusiasm for new energy investment aroused by the whole society can overcome all difficulties and achieve

the goal of affordable grid access and continuous technological progress after 2020, which is an important foundation for the subsequent annual

construction of 60 million kilowatts.

However, to achieve the annual target of 60 million kilowatts after 2020, there are three main bottlenecks and challenges that need to be addressed:

One is that there is sufficient space for the total demand, but due to intermittent defects in photovoltaic new energy, local consumption capacity is

insufficient, light is abandoned, and power grid fluctuations are caused. This involves the resolution of issues such as whether the national power grid

has truly achieved cross regional interconnection, balanced consumption across provinces and regions, regulation of multi energy complementary

technologies, and policy bottlenecks.

Secondly, in addition to vigorously developing distributed photovoltaics, the land issue is a major bottleneck in achieving an annual installed capacity

of 60 million kilowatts; In addition to further improving the photovoltaic land use policy, the vast land and sunshine in the five western provinces

and regions are still the development of photovoltaic new energy. After the State Grid Corporation of China solves the current problem of abandoned

light in the western region in 2020, there should be a more forward-looking national consumption channel construction plan to support the

construction of no less than 200 million kilowatts of photovoltaic new energy in the five western provinces by 2030.

The third is a sustainable green finance plan, which systematically summarizes the current support plans for photovoltaic new energy finance, combined

with international and domestic preferential policies for green finance, to address the concerns of developing green energy.

Taking precautions, in the promising situation where the characteristics and advantages of photovoltaic new energy are increasingly recognized by

all sectors of society, making further efforts and whether China can achieve an annual installed capacity of 60 million units after 2020 mainly depends

on whether there are sustainable solutions to the three major issues mentioned above before 2020. (Author: Yin Cunqi Jinhua Tea International

Photovoltaic Research Institute)